Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo delivered a $59.2 billion budget on October 13, 2025, under the theme "T&T First - Building Economic Fairness through Accountable Fiscal Policies." It was the UNC government's first full budget after winning the April 2025 elections, and it was built on five strategic pillars ranging from fiscal stability to social protection. It made dozens of specific commitments - some with hard deadlines, some with fuzzy timelines, and a few that have since vanished from public discussion entirely.
An Express columnist counted 296 uses of the word "will" in the budget statement and four uses of "intends." We are now at the halfway mark of fiscal 2026. This is what the scorecard looks like.
The Deficit Nobody Agrees On
Before examining individual promises, the budget's fiscal foundation deserves scrutiny - because the government and the IMF cannot agree on how large the hole actually is.
Tancoo projected a deficit of $3.865 billion, or 2.2% of GDP. The IMF, in its February 2026 Article IV concluding statement, put the figure at 5.0% of GDP - more than double the government's number. The Fund also estimated the prior year's deficit at 5.5% of GDP. Central government debt stands at 67.8% of GDP. Total public sector debt - including state enterprises - reaches 84.2%.
Former Finance Minister Colm Imbert, now in opposition, has gone further. Before the budget was even read, Imbert predicted a $15 billion deficit. After the budget, he alleged the deficit was "deliberately understated by over $6 billion" and accused the government of "manipulating economic data." His criticism carries partisan weight, but the IMF's independent assessment lends it credibility. A government projecting a 2.2% deficit while the Fund calculates 5.0% has a gap that cannot be explained by rounding.
The government has rejected IMF calls for fiscal consolidation and currency devaluation. Tancoo told reporters that devaluation and going to the IMF was "PNM policy." Works Minister Jearlean John presented a "Revitalisation Blueprint" directly to the IMF delegation, framing infrastructure-led growth as the alternative to austerity. The IMF was polite but clear: risks are "tilted to the downside."
The Revenue Gamble
The budget assumed oil at US$73.25 per barrel and gas at US$4.25 per MMBtu. As of late March 2026, WTI crude is trading around US$60 and natural gas at roughly US$3.09 per MMBtu - both significantly below the budget's assumptions. Oil revenue was projected at $11.254 billion. Every dollar below the assumed price reduces that figure, and at current prices the shortfall is substantial.
This is not a new problem. Energy revenues fell by 48.4% in the prior fiscal year. But it is a problem the budget chose to absorb rather than hedge against. The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund stood at a record US$6.34 billion as of September 2025 - but the government made zero contributions to the fund that year while withdrawing US$410 million. The Auditor General has called for amendments to the HSF Act to provide "greater clarity" on the deposit mechanism. A rainy-day fund that only sees withdrawals is not saving for rain. It is spending the umbrella.
The Credit Question
The budget leaned heavily on energy sector progress - upstream investments, new gas projects, and renewable energy - as evidence of economic stewardship. But nearly every major energy project cited in the budget received its Final Investment Decision under the previous PNM administration.
Shell's Manatee took FID in July 2024. bpTT sanctioned Ginger in March 2025, weeks before the April election. The Coconut gas field - a bp and EOG joint venture - was sanctioned under PNM. The Cypre development was entirely a PNM-era project from conception through execution. Even the ExxonMobil deepwater Production Sharing Contract, which the UNC trumpeted in its early months, was PNM-initiated - engagement with Exxon began in November 2024, and the contract was signed on what happened to be the UNC's 100th day in office. The Brechin Castle solar farm followed the same pattern: the PNM government issued the RFP, selected the consortium in July 2019, and construction began in Q3 2023. Only the final commissioning fell under the new administration.
None of this means the UNC deserves zero credit for seeing these projects through. Governments inherit pipelines, and execution matters. But a budget that presents inherited momentum as original achievement invites scrutiny. As one Express columnist observed, successful ongoing works by past administrations were presented as current government success stories - to celebratory desk-thumping.
The distinction matters because fiscal 2026 revenue depends on these projects reaching first gas. If the budget's energy assumptions hold, it will be because of investment decisions made years before Tancoo stood up to read.
The Hard Deadlines
Two commitments carried specific dates. Both have passed.
The Port of Spain General Hospital Central Block was to be "operationalised by March 2026." It was not. A broken pipeline flooded the electrical bus duct system in January, pushing the target to June 2026. The Health Minister publicly disputed UDeCOTT's claim of 90% completion, saying the facility "appeared far less complete." The original project was approved in 2017 at $1.3 billion.
A $1 billion National Investment Fund bond, backed by the government's First Citizens shares, was to be issued by Q2 - meaning March 31, 2026. It has not been issued. The Guardian's analysis found the underlying arithmetic is thin: 31.7 million First Citizens shares at $34.99 per share total approximately $1.11 billion, leaving little margin for a $1 billion instrument if the share price declines.
The EU tax blacklist removal was the bright spot. Trinidad and Tobago was officially removed on February 17, 2026, following reforms including replacing the Free Trade Zone regime with a Special Economic Zone framework. Promise kept.
The Wage Deal
The 10% public sector wage increase was the budget's marquee social commitment, and the PSA agreement was signed on December 2, 2025 - faster than most observers expected. The agreement covers the 2014-2016 and 2017-2019 bargaining periods, meaning public servants had been waiting over a decade for this adjustment.
The cost is significant. The PSA's figure for back pay is $3.8 billion. The ongoing annual recurrent cost is an additional $420 million. Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar assured an initial cash advance before Christmas 2025, with remaining arrears structured over time.
But Imbert has raised a pointed fiscal question: no budgetary allocation was made in the 2026 appropriation for the back pay. If the $3.8 billion is not in the budget, the money must come from somewhere - borrowing, the HSF, or supplemental appropriation. None of those options has been publicly confirmed. The IMF, for its part, questioned the wage hike's impact on fiscal sustainability. The Express reported the increase "could trigger job losses" and "fiscal strain." A promise delivered on paper is not the same as a promise funded in practice.
The Jobs Gap
The budget's most visible social programme - the replacement of CEPEP and URP with 20,000 permanent government positions - has delivered the starkest gap between promise and reality.
The CEPEP and URP programmes collectively employed over 30,000 people. When the government announced the recruitment drive on October 19, 2025, via the EmployTT platform, 110,000 Trinbagonians applied. Thirty thousand applied within hours.
As of late February 2026, the Guardian reported that 1,801 people had been hired by the Ministry of Works and Infrastructure - on three-month contracts with "renewal optional based on performance." Another 800 were expected from March 1. That is roughly 9% of the target, and the positions are not the permanent jobs that were promised.
When Finance Minister Tancoo was asked about spending details from the $475 million Employment Fund, he replied: "I don't have that kind of information at my disposal at this time." Minister of Public Administration Dominic Smith attempted a different defence, telling reporters that "EmployTT is not the same as the recruitment drive" - a distinction that would likely surprise the 110,000 people who applied through EmployTT expecting a recruitment drive.
No consolidated national figure showing total hires across all ministries has been released.
The Quiet Measures
Several budget commitments have received little follow-up attention. The state-sponsored Real Estate Investment Trust has vanished from public discussion - no structure, no timeline, no further mention. The asset-based levy on banks and insurance companies, projected to yield $575 million annually, has produced no published Q1 collection data. Two hundred and fifty new IRD officers were to be recruited by February 2026; no public update has confirmed whether this happened.
The budget also repealed the Property Tax Act - which Tancoo called "a blight inflicted on the people of this nation" - replacing it with a rental income surcharge tied to mandatory property registration. NIS contribution rates increased by 3% effective January 2026, with a further 3% increase scheduled for January 2027. The retirement age for full NIS pension will rise from 60 to 65, phased in starting January 2028. These are structural changes that will affect Trinbagonians for decades, but they have generated remarkably little public discussion.
The Scorecard
At the halfway mark: two hard deadlines missed, one kept. The wage deal was signed but its funding remains unaccounted for. The jobs programme has delivered 9% of its target, on temporary contracts. The deficit is somewhere between the government's 2.2% and the IMF's 5.0%, with oil prices suggesting the real number will land closer to the IMF's estimate. The Heritage and Stabilisation Fund is being drawn down, not replenished. Several fiscal instruments have not materialised.
This does not mean the budget has failed. The EU blacklist removal was delivered. The wage agreement was signed. Infrastructure projects and migrant registration frameworks are in motion. But "in motion" is not the same as "delivered," and a budget that uses the word "will" 296 times has set its own standard for accountability.
The second half of fiscal 2026 will determine whether these were plans or promises. The distinction is whether anyone is keeping count.
We are.
Sources
- Ministry of Finance: Budget Statement 2026 - "T&T First" (October 13, 2025)
- Trinidad Express: "Interpreting the budget" columnist analysis (October 19, 2025)
- EU Council: "Taxation: Council updates the EU list" (February 17, 2026)
- IMF: Article IV Mission Concluding Statement - Trinidad and Tobago (February 10, 2026)
- EY Trinidad: Focus on Trinidad and Tobago Budget 2026
- PwC Trinidad: National Budget 2026 analysis
- KPMG Trinidad: Budget Highlights 2026
- Grant Thornton Trinidad: 2026 Budget Review
- Trinidad Guardian: "What has this Government done for local investors?" (March 2026)
- Trinidad Guardian: "$3.8B back pay for public servants - CPO, PSA agree to 10% wage hike" (December 2025)
- Trinidad Guardian: "National Recruitment Drive falls short: 20,000 jobs promised, 1,801 people hired" (February 2026)
- Trinidad Guardian: "PM announces new national recruitment drive offering 20,000 jobs" (October 2025)
- Trinidad Guardian: "Imbert: Government manipulating economic data" (2026)
- Trinidad Guardian: "NIS contributions increase, retirement age to increase gradually from 2028" (October 2025)
- Trinidad Guardian: "Deficits and debt to continue in 2026 fiscal year" (2025)
- Trinidad Guardian: "IMF questions wage hike impact on growth" (2026)
- Trinidad Express: "Public servants to get 10% pay rise" (December 2025)
- Trinidad Express: "Huge budget deficit creates more problems" (2025)
- Trinidad Express: "Imbert: Govt must return to Parliament for PSA backpay funding" (2026)
- Trinidad Express: "$2.8B withdrawn from HSF in 2025" (2025)
- Trinidad Express: "No going to IMF, no devaluation" (2025)
- Newsday: "Colm Imbert expects $15B budget deficit" (September 2025)
- Newsday: "Tancoo: $475M to help fund 20,000 new jobs" (October 2025)
- Newsday: "Tancoo unveils NIS overhaul - higher rates, later retirement age" (October 2025)
- TTT News: "Public servants to get back pay before Christmas" (December 2025)
- Republic Bank: National Budget 2026 Highlights
- PwC: Tax News Alert - Finance Act 2025 (January 2026)
- Ministry of Finance: Heritage and Stabilisation Fund Quarterly Reports (2025)
- World Oil: "Shell to grow LNG business with 2027 Manatee natural gas production start-up offshore Trinidad and Tobago" (July 2024)
- BP Trinidad and Tobago: Ginger Project Sanction Announcement (March 2025)
- BP Trinidad and Tobago: Coconut Joint Venture Sanction Announcement
- Trinidad Express: "Successful ongoing works by past administrations presented as success stories" (2025)
- ExxonMobil Trinidad: Deepwater PSC Signing Announcement (2025)
- Ministry of Energy: Brechin Castle Solar Farm Project Timeline